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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Keep in mind that Amazon can and does restock huge qty at times, so the 620 units may or may not mean anything.

    Also, watch the rate of sales, then cut it in half. Right now the Republic Dropship is on sale at Amazon, good price, but I would expect it is moving a lot of units at the discounted price. Once it goes back up, it'll slow way down.

    That is my opinion anyway, but what do I know, I'm just a Lego nut! :)
  • Lego_Lord_MayorcaLego_Lord_Mayorca H-Town, USAMember Posts: 369
    Well, nut or not, I'll take the advice. Thanks! I'll keep my eye on it over the month, but I won't lose any sleep over it like some may over Fire Brigade or MMV. lol
  • dsdg88dsdg88 Member Posts: 133
    I was at a Lego store last night for the monthly mini model build and asked one of the associates about King's Castle. After he looked it up and found that it was not available, he suggested I might be interested in the Joust set coming out soon, in January I believe.
    I'd just decided I should get one toward the end of the 3rd week of TRU bricktober, but I was too late.
    Now I'm not sure if I should panic and hurry up and get one off the shelf at Target for RRP or wait and hope that the B&N stores restock.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,360
    Note: Fire Brigade is back in stock at Amazon with over a thousand units to sell.

    Oh well... :)

    (they can move that qty pretty quickly however, so it may still go out, this could be the last restock, or they could have 50,000 units, who knows...)
    Hopefully they are not the the 'trouble' coded ones..
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    I would suggest getting the King's Castle now if you want one...even if you have to get it at TRU. The prices won't double real soon, but they will go up past the TRU prices.

    Brickset is showing the Hogwarts Express as sold out. My personal experience with Brickset's "discontinued" page is that it's right 50% of the time (eventually it's right all the time). I went to Lego's site and it showed Hagred's Hut as gone and has the Hogwarts Express as "check for availability," which may indicate a sellout. I guess we'll see in a few days. Meanwhile, Amazon has the HE for slightly less than list last time I checked. You might want to look into it if you've been waiting.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    With the Harry Potter movies finished, will there continue to be more Harry Potter sets released next year, or are they done now?

    Would make sense to free up space for Marvel/DC as well as more PotC sets, since they are making 2 more of those movies...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,360
    I think Potter is done.. I was surprised to see it come back at all.... I guess they could continue it since years 5-7 is on its way to be released...
  • krklintkrklint Member Posts: 476
    personal guess, Kings Castle is retiring and will be replaced by the Joust. Approximately same size/price range. Simple business model deduction at work.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 3,986
    Potter is done, PotC is done - at least until another movie comes out, which wont' be 2012.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    What will be the next license if HP and PotC are done for now?

    Marvel/DC are coming next year I know, but personally I have little interest in those.

    I would like to see more Disney sets, how cool would a huge Cinderella Castle be on the scale of the Tower Bridge?
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited November 2011
    kid: "Mommy I can has this $250 Cinderella Castle?"
    mom: FUUUUUUUUUUUUU

    I can't think of many licensed things I'd want. I'd go broke if LotR ever happened, but seems unlikely.


  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    *smacks head*

    Why didn't I think of LotR?!? Sheesh, that would be amazing!!!

    As for the Cinderella Castle, I've watched more than one time a Mom in the Lego store buy the Death Star for kids that were clearly under 10 years old.

    I would buy my daughter a $250 Cinderella Castle in 5 seconds.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 600
    There will be a Duplo Cinderella's Castle this year. I wouldn't be surprised if the theme extends to System in 2013.
  • tdhbrtdhbr Member Posts: 188
    For what it's worth ... yesterday I took the only 7946 King's Castle and 7066 Earth Defense HQ off the the shelves at my local TRU (HQ on sale, had a 20% coupon for for the castle). At Lego Store today, looked like they had both of those, Emerald Night, probably 15 MMV, lots of Harry Potter, and no Fire Brigade. Also 7947 Prison Tower Rescue was at TRU, but not Lego Store.

    Oh, the blessings and curses of being 3 miles from both TRU and Lego Store ...
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    edited November 2011
    Potter is done, PotC is done - at least until another movie comes out, which wont' be 2012.
    yes @dougts , just checked with my friend, he says no more POTC after Christmas...what did I do this morning you think? I bought the whole collection, I did not have them yet...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    Crap! Now I have to figure out which PotC sets to get (other than the ships, which I already have). As if buying this time of year wasn't complicated enough as it is...
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,422
    I wouldn't panic about getting all the PotC sets just yet. Remember, there are still Prince of Persia sets on the shelves. They probably overproduced the PotC sets just like PoP.
  • Rollo_TomassiRollo_Tomassi Member Posts: 113
    edited November 2011
    What will be the next license if HP and PotC are done?
    I don't know about the rest of you, but I think Star Trek would be an awesome license for them to get. An Enterprise with a saucer that opens up to reveal the bridge, and perhaps the bottom part could have an engine room with Scotty.

    Also, I would dig NFL sets. Make 3 or 4 different sets that replicated a full field with a stadium. And the possibilities for all the different little Franchises are endless.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,422
    ^ I'd say if you're interested in having LEGO do NFL sets, then go to Cuusoo and support Kyle Johnson's project:
    http://lego.cuusoo.com/ideas/view/1471
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Star Trek would have been good 10 years ago when it was on the air every day, today it is a bit played out.

    I agree it would be cool, but it might be a bit late. Let them come out with a new TV series and they could time new sets to match.
  • CrackseedCrackseed Member Posts: 90
    If I could personally pick a theme I'd love a Mass Effect related theme but that might be a bit too "adult" - course the day they announce a Starcraft or Warhammer 40k theme, I'll flip out xD
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,360
    I know it is wishful thinking but
    Two words......Doctor Who

  • tdhbrtdhbr Member Posts: 188
    Lord of the Rings would be amazing. Castles, fortified cities, siege towers and battering rams, caves, the Shire .... hobbits and elves and wizards ... Just think of all those people spending $$$$ to build orc armies!!
  • TockoTocko Member Posts: 24
    I just picked up King's Castle today at local Muellers for 72€.
  • dsdg88dsdg88 Member Posts: 133
    I have a King's Castle waiting for me at B&N. Thanks for the advice.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator Posts: 4,401
    edited November 2011
    Let's try to stay on point here...i.e. sets discontinuing. There's a great "next license" thread somewhere if someone wants to dig it up and resuscitate it (I'm on my phone so my ability to search is limited). But I too would like to restart the LotR chatter. :o)
  • Rollo_TomassiRollo_Tomassi Member Posts: 113
    I'm a n00b when it comes to buying sets directly from Lego.com. I only bought my first set a couple weeks ago so I have no idea what to expect on Black Friday. If its not too far off topic, what can we expect on that day? Deep discounts? VIP incentives? I was thinking of getting the two oldest Winter Village sets as my next purchase. Should I get them now or wait until BF.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,422
    For those finding King's Castle at their B&N, where are you located? I've searched several in multiple areas on-line and none come up with any in-stock.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited November 2011
    I'm a n00b when it comes to buying sets directly from Lego.com. I only bought my first set a couple weeks ago so I have no idea what to expect on Black Friday. If its not too far off topic, what can we expect on that day? Deep discounts? VIP incentives? I was thinking of getting the two oldest Winter Village sets as my next purchase. Should I get them now or wait until BF.
    I'd like to know this too. The only incentive I know of this year is the availability of the 2nd Christmas promo set, but you can also get that in the physical Lego stores.

    No idea what to expect for any other actual deals/incentives on the website.
  • dsdg88dsdg88 Member Posts: 133
    @sidersdd, I'm in the Portland, OR area. I maybe got the last King's Castle from Lloyd center, but bn.com was also showing stock at Tanasbourne.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,360
    LEGO is pretty good at hiding what is going to occur on Black Friday..
    Although if I remember correctly, their massive discounting occurred on Thanksgiving day at about 5pm.. not at 11pm on Thursday night (which is 12midnight on Eastern US)
    Usually most Black Friday 'sales' are to clear out the old stock with major price cuts (like the Technic Front Loaders for about 40 USD , then a corrected 50 dollars)
    That Lego City townhouse was down to 20 dollars.
    I think the City Steamroller could be had for about 15 dollars as well
    The pig farms were about 18 bucks, if I remember correctly (which explains people on Amazon selling 100's of them for only 28), and if the Green Grocer would have made it, it would have been about 75 or 100 dollars.... We know this because LEGO has a habit of listing sets that have been long sold out with a sale price, but listed as 'Sold Out' thus also causing a frenzy in the boards :-)

    So anything that is 'long in tooth' for LEGO (been around a while) and still is in stock may be in line for a huge discounted price...
    Again this is if I am remembering correctly, someone correct me if I am wrong..

    But I would say look for PoP to have major discounts... any Potter stuff.. the Pirates stuff due to move out for the next line of Pirates sets (at least I hope there will be a next line of Pirates sets) So QAR if around, may be available as well for a discount)
    Any Star Wars sets that are older lines (like the Republic dropship)... Maybe Death Stars if there are still stocks of them.
    It would be nice to see the Diagon alley be out there for 100 instead of 150.
    ID say if Fire Brigade is still around it may be worth it, but then again it sounds like the last batch is missing ALOT of piece.
    But I think a lot of smaller sets.. If the Toy Story stuff is still on sale then it may go lower as well...
    Again please note I am SPECULATING, not saying this is will be the way it is... Black Friday may just come and go with nothing going on.... but I doubt it
  • bri4jennbri4jenn United StatesMember Posts: 79
    edited November 2011
    The Target in Glen Mills, PA has 3 King's Castles left for $99.99. BN.com is also a good choice for this item. If you have the Disocver Card remember to go through ShopDiscover to save 5% at Target and 15% at B&N. Plus both sites have free shipping.
  • Rollo_TomassiRollo_Tomassi Member Posts: 113
    @madforlegos Thanks for the heads up concerning Black Friday. I guess we'll just have to keep our eyes peeled for deals. :-)
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 600
    edited November 2011
    You are confusing Black Friday with LEGO's After Christmas sale. Also, since POTC isn't being discontinued, it be marked down.
    LEGO is pretty good at hiding what is going to occur on Black Friday..
    Although if I remember correctly, their massive discounting occurred on Thanksgiving day at about 5pm.. not at 11pm on Thursday night (which is 12midnight on Eastern US)
    Usually most Black Friday 'sales' are to clear out the old stock with major price cuts (like the Technic Front Loaders for about 40 USD , then a corrected 50 dollars)
    That Lego City townhouse was down to 20 dollars.
    I think the City Steamroller could be had for about 15 dollars as well
    The pig farms were about 18 bucks, if I remember correctly (which explains people on Amazon selling 100's of them for only 28), and if the Green Grocer would have made it, it would have been about 75 or 100 dollars.... We know this because LEGO has a habit of listing sets that have been long sold out with a sale price, but listed as 'Sold Out' thus also causing a frenzy in the boards :-)

    So anything that is 'long in tooth' for LEGO (been around a while) and still is in stock may be in line for a huge discounted price...
    Again this is if I am remembering correctly, someone correct me if I am wrong..

    But I would say look for PoP to have major discounts... any Potter stuff.. the Pirates stuff due to move out for the next line of Pirates sets (at least I hope there will be a next line of Pirates sets) So QAR if around, may be available as well for a discount)
    Any Star Wars sets that are older lines (like the Republic dropship)... Maybe Death Stars if there are still stocks of them.
    It would be nice to see the Diagon alley be out there for 100 instead of 150.
    ID say if Fire Brigade is still around it may be worth it, but then again it sounds like the last batch is missing ALOT of piece.
    But I think a lot of smaller sets.. If the Toy Story stuff is still on sale then it may go lower as well...
    Again please note I am SPECULATING, not saying this is will be the way it is... Black Friday may just come and go with nothing going on.... but I doubt it
  • sonsofscevasonsofsceva 1904 World's FairMember Posts: 451
    We are going to see a lot of turn around at the series level, I think.

    The Wal-Mart Christmas toy catalog has PotC Fountain and Isle sets rolled back to $15 from $20. They also rolled back the Ninjago Ice Dragon and Blacksmith to $15. You know that all of those sets will be discontinued.
    PotC will pick up when the next movie comes in a couple of years, but Disney sets this summer will likely just be the Marvel superhero sets (as they bought Marvel about two years ago). As for Ninjago, it appears to be doing some time travel or something with them having planes and things for the new series. So you know the whole skeleton series will be leaving soon.
    Other series seem to have no future right now either. I haven't heard anything about Pharoah's Quest (or other Jake Raines quests - too bad), Alien Conquest, or Kingdoms sets except for the joust. I haven't heard of any new Atlantis sets either. So it looks like a big shakeup in the main lines.

    BTW - is the Joust set a Kingdoms set, or is it a new castle-themed series, or an independent foray?
  • drdavewatforddrdavewatford Hertfordshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 5,869
    Joust is a Kingdoms set.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,360
    Thanks @Ma1234 sometimes with memories they just all melt into one sale.....
    So everyone should be watching out for after Christmas as well :-)
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 600
    edited November 2011
    PoTC is not being discontinued. Pharoh's Quest and Atlantis are on the way out. Kingdoms and Alien Conquest are not. You'll see new sets in both themes in late spring.
    The Wal-Mart Christmas toy catalog has PotC Fountain and Isle sets rolled back to $15 from $20. They also rolled back the Ninjago Ice Dragon and Blacksmith to $15. You know that all of those sets will be discontinued.
    PotC will pick up when the next movie comes in a couple of years, but Disney sets this summer will likely just be the Marvel superhero sets (as they bought Marvel about two years ago).
  • fyrmedhattfyrmedhatt Member Posts: 128
    PoTC is not being discontinued. Pharoh's Quest and Atlantis are on the way out. Kingdoms and Alien Conquest are not. You'll see new sets in both themes in late spring.
    Not to divert the discussion, but have you heard this from a reliable source? I'm curious as I have previously heard otherwise from other unconfirmed sources, but I really want both themes to survive as I think they are awesome.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    That would be pretty cool to get new Alien Conquest sets, but everything else I've read says that is a one-off set.

    But then what do I know? :)

    Atlantis has a ton of items in the set, seems like they would keep that and drop the smaller stuff. Pharoh's Quest seems ready to go, it only has, what, 6 sets?
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    Seeing as how Atlantis made its Debut in Mid 2010(I think), I am sure it is pretty safe to say that the line is DOA as it has had 3 waves. As for Pharoh's Quest I think the theme is done as no new sets have come out since it was launched at beginning of this year, but we may see the characters show up in a different theme later on.
  • sonsofscevasonsofsceva 1904 World's FairMember Posts: 451
    @drdavewatford - Thanks
    @ma1234 - I agree that PotC probably won't be discontinued, but have you heard of any planned sets beyond the Black Pearl? From what I have seen it looks like that is likely the last until another movie comes out. Have you heard of other AC and Kingdoms sets? If so, let us know because that would be great news!
  • MatthewMatthew UKAdministrator Posts: 3,707
    I would assume we'll hear about Kingdoms in late Jan/Early Feb, as it's probably going to be a summer release (the last two waves have been). Possibly AQ will be the same.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    What's the consensus on the Atlantis theme? Hit? Miss? Somewhere in between?
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 600
    I haven't seen/heard of new PoTC. Ive seen some set numbers for the summer lines, and AQ and Kingdoms are there.

    Also, 10210 Imperial Flagship, I believe is on the way out. Picked up the last one at one of my local LEGO Stores and the other local store has been out for week.
  • EricEric Queensland, AustraliaMember Posts: 376
    AQ? Do you mean Alien Conquest? If so, yay!
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    My lego store hasn't had 10210 on the shelves in a long time. I think they pretty much sell them right away when they get them in. I'm sure though they'll have a lot come x-mas time though.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 600
    edited November 2011
    My lego store hasn't had 10210 on the shelves in a long time. I think they pretty much sell them right away when they get them in. I'm sure though they'll have a lot come x-mas time though.
    I don't know. I live in LA and one of my two local stores is the Disneyland location that always has everything in stock. Plus it has been removed from the late edition LEGO Shop at Home holiday catalog. It's definitely on the way out, IMO.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    edited November 2011
    Nope...I think the first quote by madforlegos was spot-on correct even down to the time of the sales. I checked my receipts and I picked up the sets he mentioned on Black Friday. Word is in the USA that retailers are not doing nearly as well as they do this time of year, so it will be a great year for discounted lego sets. You will have a good idea of which sets are being obsoleted on Black Friday, so you better pick them up fast. I do recall Obi-Wan's $100 ship being marked down 25% last year, and I would bet a Death Star it will be marked down and obsoleted. If the Imperial Flagship is marked down to $100 to clear out, I will buy two of them and start building a Royal Navy. ;-)

    The talk about Black Friday has me really excited to see what they mark down. Hopefully, they will make a mistake like last year and mark sets off 60%.
    You are confusing Black Friday with LEGO's After Christmas sale. Also, since POTC isn't being discontinued, it be marked down.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 600
    edited November 2011
    Te big LEGO sale is the 26th of December, I assure you. There is nothing special Black Friday weekend other than sets already on clearence (like the Obi ship was last year) and the scratch off card. Discontinued stock is absolutely not marked down until after Christmas. I absolutely assure you this is the case.
    The talk about Black Friday has me really excited to see what they mark down. Hopefully, they will make a mistake like last year and mark sets off 60%
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