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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 6,927
    edited February 2013
    I think the under the radar set may be the superman Lex Luthor one. (well not after I bring it up anyway :-) )
    I'm not sure many people are buying them (as it just seems to me to be a bit pricy for what it is) and it does have the 'comic book' design Superman where I think the new Superman sets will be in that darker blue color for the movie, if I am not mistaken
    I think that despite the numbers out there that the Funhouse will do well too just because of the figures in it.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,311
    The SH sets do nothing for me. I have none in my personal collection and they all are purely Minifig driven which means you are at the mercy of those figs or similar versions not appearing in subesquent sets. The sets themselves are rubbish for the most part. I may miss the boat, but I am staying away from the SH sets short a 50-70% discount (I'll buy anything at that level :))
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 143
    I think the minifigs are awesome, but curious about something someone said earlier. Now that we have noticed Lego starting to repeat cycles (Jabba Barge, Arkham Asylum), I wonder if the collectibilility market might be much smaller than before. There is no doubt that many, many more sets are made these days and many more "speculators" than before. I think the average person will buy the newer sets, as let's be honest, none of the earlier SW or HP sets can hold a candle to the new ones, just like all the sets from 10yrs from now, will look much better than the ones of today. I think this is something to consider when buying minifig driven sets.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,086
    Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals). It will be interesting to see if they perform as well as some Ninjago spinners did. Outside of dabbling with a the Lloyd craze I've stayed out of the Ninjago theme and will likely stay out of Chima. Having a hard time gauging whether Chima is a hit or not.
    Pitfall69
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,265
    edited February 2013
    jcb193 said:

    Now that we have noticed Lego starting to repeat cycles (Jabba Barge, Arkham Asylum), I wonder if the collectibilility market might be much smaller than before. There is no doubt that many, many more sets are made these days and many more "speculators" than before. I think the average person will buy the newer sets, as let's be honest, none of the earlier SW or HP sets can hold a candle to the new ones, just like all the sets from 10yrs from now, will look much better than the ones of today. I think this is something to consider when buying minifig driven sets.

    LEGO hasn't just started the practice of redesigns with Jabba's Sail Barge or Arkham Asylum; they've been redesigning Star Wars sets since 2004. Surely there are effects that redesigns have on the collectors' market, but I don't even know if I could tell you if it's better or worse because of it, much less say that it is MUCH more so in either direction.

    Also, while I agree that many of the Star Wars redesigns are better, it's not always the case, and it's far from a foregone conclusion that sets 10 years from now will be better than those of today. I greatly prefer sets from the mid-to-late 80's over those that were released in the mid-to-late 90's.
    madforLEGOYellowcastle
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 660
    Renny said:

    Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals).

    Actually no. They are there to up sales. The Speedorz and Friends sets all display the "NEW" label.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,899
    edited February 2013
    I'm surprised items such as, #41017, #41018, #41019, #70101, #70102, and #21016 are retiring. Some of these even have the "new" tag on them.

    I better pick up the Friends sets before they EOL.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-CA/Retiring-Soon?ShipTo=CA&_requestid=513938
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,899
    Penkid11 said:

    Renny said:

    Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals).

    Actually no. They are there to up sales. The Speedorz and Friends sets all display the "NEW" label.
    Nope. LEGO Shop Facebook comment:
    Just wanted to clarify that there is no mistake on the Friends and Chima items. The Friends Pets and Chima Speedorz are set to refresh on much shorter timelines than most sets.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    OMGtalkingaboutFBatEOLhowdareyou!

    Didn't you know? That's been deemed uninteresting and unenjoyable.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 13,209
    Aren't Friends Pets going to be just like the CMF. One shot to get them (a few months), and they're done, with another new series out to replace it. Therefore as soon as they are out, they are on the retirement list.
  • chrisdojochrisdojo Member Posts: 168
    Once Disney starts releasing new Star Wars movies LEGO will have less time to redesign old sets as the new material will need to be addressed. With Star Wars never ending (now that Disney has it), new die hard fans (not yet born) may look back and want some of the older stuff.

    Maybe a slight parallel to baseball cards... New cards are "nicer"/more fancy in some ways (game used bat/jersey, gold foil, etc) but a die hard collector is going to want to get their hands on older, rare cards.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 234
    The one good thing will be that disney will start selling Star Wars sets in its stores and they have pretty nice discounts from time to time.
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 3,743 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 9,528
    edited February 2013
    I noticed this last night on Amazon.
    tensor said:

    OMGtalkingaboutFBatEOLhowdareyou!

    Didn't you know? That's been deemed uninteresting ad unejoyable.

    Talking about the set that dare not be mentioned is definitely considered taboo now.


  • PicopiratePicopirate Member Posts: 312
    I just came across 4 ISs today at $260 each. Two had slight dents in the boxes. Are these worth getting at this price? They also had about 6 knight bus sets for $27 each.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 3,743 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 9,528
    Grab the Knight Buses. As far as the IS, if you don't mind making a small profit grab them too. Don't worry about dents in box, a lot of IS boxes are less than perfect.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,236
    So with the release of #10240 what do we think #7191 will do. In Australia at least it had been selling well a couple going for $1200 AUD on eBay, but I have seen them for as low as $800 new in box over the last 6 months.

    I'm thinking well see a larger number going for sale and prices will drop, by how much I'm not sure, due to the greater supply and lower demand, as some decide to just go with the new one.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 6,927

    Penkid11 said:

    Renny said:

    Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals).

    Actually no. They are there to up sales. The Speedorz and Friends sets all display the "NEW" label.
    Nope. LEGO Shop Facebook comment:
    Just wanted to clarify that there is no mistake on the Friends and Chima items. The Friends Pets and Chima Speedorz are set to refresh on much shorter timelines than most sets.
    If you check the 'retiring soon' moniker for those sets (http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon) , they are listed as 'new' and not 'retiring soon' just like CMF 9 are listed as such but I'm guessing they around for a while.. I guess anything is possible though if they are bags sets.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,899

    Penkid11 said:

    Renny said:

    Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals).

    Actually no. They are there to up sales. The Speedorz and Friends sets all display the "NEW" label.
    Nope. LEGO Shop Facebook comment:
    Just wanted to clarify that there is no mistake on the Friends and Chima items. The Friends Pets and Chima Speedorz are set to refresh on much shorter timelines than most sets.
    If you check the 'retiring soon' moniker for those sets (http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon) , they are listed as 'new' and not 'retiring soon' just like CMF 9 are listed as such but I'm guessing they around for a while.. I guess anything is possible though if they are bags sets.

    Click on the set itself and check out the tags. It says both 'new' and 'retiring soon'. :)
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,583
    edited February 2013

    I just came across 4 ISs today at $260 each. Two had slight dents in the boxes. Are these worth getting at this price? They also had about 6 knight bus sets for $27 each.

    I would personally grab all 4 IS's for that price right now. It's a blue chip set, guaranteed investment but might be slow mover.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 6,927

    Penkid11 said:

    Renny said:

    Just read that the first series of Chima Speedorz has been tagged with the Retiring Soon label (same with Friends animals).

    Actually no. They are there to up sales. The Speedorz and Friends sets all display the "NEW" label.
    Nope. LEGO Shop Facebook comment:
    Just wanted to clarify that there is no mistake on the Friends and Chima items. The Friends Pets and Chima Speedorz are set to refresh on much shorter timelines than most sets.
    If you check the 'retiring soon' moniker for those sets (http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon) , they are listed as 'new' and not 'retiring soon' just like CMF 9 are listed as such but I'm guessing they around for a while.. I guess anything is possible though if they are bags sets.
    Click on the set itself and check out the tags. It says both 'new' and 'retiring soon'. :)

    Ahh, I see now, thanks.
  • brillianth80brillianth80 Member Posts: 4
    10197 FB is retiring in march.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,064

    10197 FB is retiring in march.

    http://dundundun.net/
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 3,671
    edited February 2013

    10197 FB is retiring in march.

    10188 DS is retiring in april.
    UKtsumi
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,899
    mathew said:

    10197 FB is retiring in march.

    http://dundundun.net/
    That scared me. lol
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 3,671

    mathew said:

    10197 FB is retiring in march.

    http://dundundun.net/
    That scared me. lol
    I didn't know you could click on it. Saw it flashing, clicked on it....

    and jumped a few inches out of my seat.
    LegobrandonCP
  • epyon396epyon396 Member Posts: 268
    samiam391 said:

    10197 FB is retiring in march.

    10188 DS is retiring in april.
    Oh no.
    The time for my desperate pleas to my wife to let me spend $350 on a toy is closer than I thought.
    I'm not ready.
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 3,671
    epyon396 said:

    samiam391 said:

    10197 FB is retiring in march.

    10188 DS is retiring in april.
    Oh no.
    The time for my desperate pleas to my wife to let me spend $350 on a toy is closer than I thought.
    I'm not ready.
    @epyon396- I was hoping my sarcasm might carry through, but I'd hate to think someone spent $350 because of information they thought to be true!

    I was merely joking. No need to spend that money quite yet! :-)
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 631
    samiam391 said:



    @epyon396- I was hoping my sarcasm might carry through, but I'd hate to think someone spent $350 because of information they thought to be true!

    I was merely joking. No need to spend that money quite yet! :-)

    Or IS HE ???

    http://dundundun.net/

    Sorry.. too easy.. ;)
    BrickDancer
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 312
    Bottom line, if you want a Death Star, Fire Brigade or whatever else to build for yourself then if you can afford the set and its a decent price you should probably get it! Waiting around until just before it goes eol is madness.

    If you're reselling then maybe wait until closer to the time but you may be waiting a long time for some of these sets to go. Or maybe not..!
    madforLEGO
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 3,671


    samiam391 said:



    @epyon396- I was hoping my sarcasm might carry through, but I'd hate to think someone spent $350 because of information they thought to be true!

    I was merely joking. No need to spend that money quite yet! :-)

    Or IS HE ???

    http://dundundun.net/

    Sorry.. too easy.. ;)
    You got me.. you got me.. ;-)
  • SALESALE Member Posts: 25
    What about 10220 - Volkswagen T1 Camper Van .. sold on all amazon sites , only Third-Party Sellers have them .. is it time ?
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 735
    SALE said:

    What about 10220 - Volkswagen T1 Camper Van .. sold on all amazon sites , only Third-Party Sellers have them .. is it time ?

    No.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,528
  • gregoryrichardsgregoryrichards Member Posts: 10
    SALE said:

    What about 10220 - Volkswagen T1 Camper Van .. sold on all amazon sites , only Third-Party Sellers have them .. is it time ?

    This is a terrible set very fragile roof worst set I ever bought almost put me off lego for good.

  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,236
    edited February 2013
    ^ I think it's a great set, even though I haven't built mine. I got one for my Mum and she built it with a little help. Sure it is fragile but its not really a play set and to get the details it has for its size you have to expect this sort of thing.

    I see these type of sets as more of a scale model then just Lego, i've dabbled in model wooden boat building, now there fragile!
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 248
    The VW camper is probably one of my favourite sets, the details included are excellent and it's a really fun build. I got the impression that the roof purposely came off easily so you could access the features inside easier.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,294
    I think the VW Camper will do well once it's EOL'd. If you watch the TLG video, the roof is made to detach so you can access the inside. If memory serves, the VW came out about the same time as the SW IS and the IS is now gone. The VW should be nearing the end...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 6,927
    edited February 2013
    VW will still probably be out, It looked it it was out of stock around Christmas but now it appears stocks are back up.
    Also just because Amazon does not have it now, does not mean it will not be back in a few weeks
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Why does everyone keep saying Amazon doesn't have the VW Van?

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0050R0XEG/

    They have plenty of them, and have been stocked for awhile now... They are also in the local LEGO stores, this doesn't feel like it will EOL until the end of this year.

    Or are you guys in Europe and see something else?
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 631
    edited February 2013
    @LegoFanTexas Let me be the first to welcome you back to this thread

    So, is Death Star retired yet ? ;)
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150

    Why does everyone keep saying Amazon doesn't have the VW Van?

    I think the reason is that when searching amazon, many come up first with the double listing on amazon for independents on the camper
    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Volkswagen-Camper-Van-10220/dp/B005PJU16O/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1361080353&sr=8-9&keywords=camper+van+lego

    I was going to point out this earlier and then closed the browser and forgot, I am glad I didn't because it meant that LFT is back.

  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 631
    ^ I did not see that at all. I searched for "lego vw" and "lego vw van" (both without quotes) and it returned the $119.99 set as the number 1 result
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    @LegoFanTexas Let me be the first to welcome you back to this thread

    So, is Death Star retired yet ? ;)

    :) Thanks...

    --------

    Regarding Death Star, I've actually been digging on this one. I now have three different sources, all three of whom should be at least somewhat reliable:

    One days that production has now ended and what is in the wild is all that will be made.

    The second says that production is winding down and it may go sometime later this year.

    The third says that it is slated to be in production at least until the end of the year and probably won't retire until May 4th 2014 at the soonest.

    So... I have absolutely no idea whatsoever... :)

    --------

    Look on the bright side, at least one of them is bound to be right! :)
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Option 4: Retires 4 May 2020
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,052
    It is hard to see retirement on it, it is by far the most playable set TLG has ever made. Cost is the only stumbling block to every SW Lego mad kid out there owning one. It is great value for money however. I think TLG could churn these out for another 10 years and still have no bother selling them. Having a worthy successor that will outshine the DS would be the most logical reason for retirement. Welcome back LFT!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Having a worthy successor that will outshine the DS would be the most logical reason for retirement. Welcome back LFT!

    Thanks! :)

    As for 10188 - the primary issue over time I think becomes the price for what you get.

    The part count, the weight of the parts, the cost to print that big manual... at some point, the set either needs a price increase, or it becomes such a bargin that it really starts to make new sets like Rancor Pit look like the terrible deal that it is. :)

    What if they retired 10188 this year, waited 12 months, then came out with a Death Star Mk II, like the new Technic Mobile Crane? They could up the part count to 4,100 to make people feel like it was "more", they could refresh the minifigs to current designs, they could redo the build and make it "fresh", and then up the price to $499.

    Not that I want to give TLG any ideas of course. :)
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890



    :) Thanks...

    --------

    Regarding Death Star, I've actually been digging on this one. I now have three different sources, all three of whom should be at least somewhat reliable:

    One days that production has now ended and what is in the wild is all that will be made.

    The second says that production is winding down and it may go sometime later this year.

    The third says that it is slated to be in production at least until the end of the year and probably won't retire until May 4th 2014 at the soonest.

    So... I have absolutely no idea whatsoever... :)

    --------

    Look on the bright side, at least one of them is bound to be right! :)

    I think the Ewok Village playset is going to effectively take its place in October, and it will be gone by the Jan. timeframe next year at the latest, ala the imperial shuttle this year.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Bandit said:

    I think the Ewok Village playset is going to effectively take its place in October, and it will be gone by the Jan. timeframe next year at the latest, ala the imperial shuttle this year.

    Assuming that Ewok Village is indeed a multi-thousand part set, and not a 1,200 part set, I would tend to agree.

    If watching the IS count down was fun, just wait until DS finally goes.

    That will be an event! :) Can I bring the party hats? :)
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 741

    Bandit said:

    I think the Ewok Village playset is going to effectively take its place in October, and it will be gone by the Jan. timeframe next year at the latest, ala the imperial shuttle this year.

    Assuming that Ewok Village is indeed a multi-thousand part set, and not a 1,200 part set, I would tend to agree.

    If watching the IS count down was fun, just wait until DS finally goes.

    That will be an event! :) Can I bring the party hats? :)
    Welcome back LFT :-) I hope the DS goes 2014/2015 purely from a selfish point of view as I still have 48 IS's to shift - they need to clear my shelves first.

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