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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    edited November 2011
    I'm not arguing that there's a big sale after Christmas (and I am looking forward to it). Last year's day after Christmas sale got me Count Dooku's Solar Sailer for 50% off and the Wind Turbine for more than 50% off. But the sale on Black Friday got me a couple Technic Loaders sets (8265) for 60% off along with a couple other sets at 60% off. Black Friday also offers 10% off plus free shipping added onto the sales prices. Both days are great; however, the Black Friday sale last year offered better sets and discounts for my tastes. A side note...the Obi ship is a bust in my opinion and may be one of those marked down to 50%. I agree that discontinued items will be down to 50% after Christmas...no doubt. A real lego fan wouldn't miss either day.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 600
    edited November 2011
    Yes, definitely, I know exactly what you are talking about, but those aren't Black Friday exclusive deals. Those are just clearenced sets that happen to have been available at Black Friday last year. My store had deals on the farm sets, for example, but it was all through late November and into December until the sets were cleared out. So one wouldn't need to rush to get those deals on Black Friday. In fact, they might even be available before.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,422
    edited November 2011
    Like the game sets right now.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    The loader set I mentioned previously (8265) sold out within 30 minutes on Black Friday. Perhaps the fact that Lego inadvertently marked it down 60% instead of 40% had something to do with it. Either way, that same set cost $33 during the sale and now goes for well over $100 on eBay. One of Lego's best Technic sets in my opinion, and I'm glad I was one of the lucky ones who was able to get it cheap before it was gone.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator Posts: 4,401
    @everyone - please be more judicious with the "quote" function by limiting it just to the relevant portion of the comment.

    @Ma1234 - I too believe PotC is ending. Please provide some details, if possible, for your assertions otherwise. As for Kingdoms, my (unfounded) conspiracy theory is that we'll see a new line/variation in late Summer / Fall. ;o)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @Yellowcastle - Is there a way to make the quote function just quote the last reply and skip the prior quoted stuff? I've seen that on other message boards

    I agree with you that PotC is over until the next movie comes out, but what do I know. I would think Kingdoms would be a perennial set, they would have a few new sets each year and retire a few every year, like Star Wars and City.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 600
    edited November 2011
    PotC is "ending" in that there are no new sets in the pipeline. It will continue to be on store shelves well into 2012, just like Toy Story remains. I've seen the "preliminary" summer 2012 set listings, which I assume will leak out by the end of December.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    I saw three Kingdoms Castle sets in our local Target today. They were priced at $99.99 each.

    Regarding the PotC, I would be surprised if they ended this series so soon. The Black Pearl was just released, and the other sets have been out less than one year. PotC was much more popular than PoP, and I seem to recall those sets being released in early 2010 (almost 2 years ago). Furthermore, Toy Story has been out almost two years as well. The only reason PotC would be ending now (IMO) would be a licensing issue with Disney. But since Disney also owned the rights to PoP and Toy Story, why would they be treated any differently from an end-of-life perspective.

    Personally, I can see several SW sets being obsoleted. My wildcard set that I believe might be concluded is the land speeder set.

    Just my thoughts...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,360
    @Yellowcastle - Is there a way to make the quote function just quote the last reply and skip the prior quoted stuff? I've seen that on other message boards
    I think the easiest way is to Just leave the Quote header and footer and edit (delete) whatever comment you copy over...

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,360


    Regarding the PotC, I would be surprised if they ended this series so soon.

    Just my thoughts...
    I agree, I mean there are many more sets they could do for PoTC I think and they still have a few ships to sell still, but maybe with Davy Jones included in the Black Pearl (which was wierd) signifies that the line will end and they got what they could out of it..
    I hope that is not the case, as I believe there is at least another line of sets I can see out of PoTC and the Flying Dutchman as a ship.... If not the British ships...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    All true about PotC, however we don't know the sales numbers... The ships might sell well, but does the rest of the line?

    Does it sell better or worse than Atlantis or Ninjago which Lego doesn't have to pay a license fee for?

    There has to be room next year for Marvel/DC as well, where are those going to go?

    Lego has too many lines right now if you ask me, they run the risk of making so many they stop becoming special.

    It isn't just shelf space at a Lego store, it is how much space at TRU, Target, Walmart, etc. that they can get, at some point they are just making these sets for the fans because they are hard to find in retail stores and only so many people buy at Lego.com
  • MatthewMatthew UKAdministrator Posts: 3,707
    It would appear that PQ is ending this year. See the blue box at the bottom left of this email I was sent. http://links.mkt2462.com/servlet/MailView?ms=NDIxNzQ0NwS2&r=MTY1NDEwNTI1MDMS1&j=MjUzMTIwMTU3S0&mt=1&rt=0
  • LostInTranslationLostInTranslation UKMember Posts: 4,771
    @matthew thanks for that, but I wonder what his "new adventure" will be?! We haven't heard about a new theme with Jake raines but this implies that there will be one.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    Not a fan of PQ. A few of the minifigs are interesting, but that's about it.

    I agree with the previous assessments that the PotC ships are nice, but I could pass on the rest.

    Atlantis is a goner. The Fire Brigade has to be gone...I really hope it's on a Black Friday or post-Christmas sale.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 600
    edited November 2011
    It's unlikely that there will be any Fire Brigades left for the after XMas sales. The last batches have shipped out; and if your store is already out (like mine), probably won't get any more stock. Anybody holding off on this set - buy it now.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    The PQ pyramid is now sold out according to Brickset. I think the Ninjango is too close to the PQ and one of the two has to go, and there's no doubt which one it will be!
  • The_Brick_BuilderThe_Brick_Builder Member Posts: 658
    I am pretty sure these sets will retire December, 2011:

    10188 Death Star
    10197 Fire Brigade
    10194 Emerald Night

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    I would like all of those. They are all very nice sets. I hope Lego replaces them with something just as nice.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    Hogwarts Express (4841) is now officially sold out. It lists for $80 and is now selling for over $100 on Amazon. I like trains, but hadn't purchased this particular set yet. Fortunately, I was able to grab one last week for $77 before it was officially gone.
  • aaronptrckaaronptrck Northern CaliforniaMember Posts: 15
    Pharaoh's Quest was an interestingly short-lived theme. All sets were released just prior to the end of 2010 and have been discontinued in less than a year.

    Pharaoh's Quest was a GOOD theme! I wish they would have introduced a second wave of sets like Kingdoms/Ninjago.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    Holiday Ornament with Red Bricks (853344) sold out within about a week. I expect the Gold Brick and Green Brick varieties to be gone before the Black Friday sale. I would order those soon if you are interested in the annual Lego Christmas sets.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    More Christmas ornaments selling out (now the gold bubble). The green bubble is next. They actually make decent stocking gifts...
  • Rollo_TomassiRollo_Tomassi Member Posts: 113
    edited November 2011
    Pharaoh's Quest was an interestingly short-lived theme. All sets were released just prior to the end of 2010 and have been discontinued in less than a year.

    Pharaoh's Quest was a GOOD theme! I wish they would have introduced a second wave of sets like Kingdoms/Ninjago.
    I could see them doing "________'s" Quest with the same character in different locales. Like an Arctic version with snowmobiles, or a Jungle version. It's kinda like an Indy Jones subtheme without having to pay licensing so George can buy more Playmates for girlfriends.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    The green bubble is now officially sold out. I would expect the stocking to sell out next, but the tree and santa magnet will take awhile since Lego seems to do those every year.

    The HP Burrows (4840) is now gone along with the Howarts Express.

    Out of 11 total PQ sets, 3 are sold out and 4 are on sale. I think that entire theme will be gone in the next month or two, so look for sales.

    I think Toy Story is headed the same direction as there are many sets sold out or on sale.

    All Prince of Persia sets are sold out or on sale. Say goodbye to that series (which I actually kind of liked).

    Other guesses include the Fire Brigade, older SW sets (to make way for the new), and a few of the Kingdom sets that have been around awhile.
  • MatthewMatthew UKAdministrator Posts: 3,707
    I could see them doing "________'s" Quest
    It would appear they are going to, as I said before:
    It would appear that PQ is ending this year. See the blue box at the bottom left of this email I was sent. http://links.mkt2462.com/servlet/MailView?ms=NDIxNzQ0NwS2&r=MTY1NDEwNTI1MDMS1&j=MjUzMTIwMTU3S0&mt=1&rt=0
  • andheandhe UKMember Posts: 2,450
    Unless he's part of the Dino sets (which seems unlikely) I'm guessing they'll 'rest' Jack Raines and co then bring him back in 2013 with a new quest, replacing the Dino 2012 stuff.
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    edited November 2011
    Hogwarts Express (4841) is now officially sold out. It lists for $80 and is now selling for over $100 on Amazon.
    Too little, too late, I know... but some Targets were clearancing them for $40 over the summer.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    Dang...I missed that sale! $40???? I bought mine for about $75. Oh well...I guess Amazon needs to make money too.
  • DavidBrickleyDavidBrickley Richmond, VAMember Posts: 334
    One Target store I know of went as low as $20 before the last few disappeared ;).

    All of the wal-marts still seem to have this on the shelves at msrp. Surprisingly, the TRUs in my area are sold out, and theirs was marked up 25% to 99.99
  • MatthewMatthew UKAdministrator Posts: 3,707
    ^ You are joking?!?
    I think I'll have to seriously consider moving across the pond, for deals like that. So you've had Dobby sets for $5, Quidditch for $10, Hagrid's Hut for $20, Hogwarts Express for $20 and Hogwarts Castle for $50!!!
    I don't suppose anyone got any spares?
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    ^ If your lucks like mine, don't bother. I have several store managers that are friends and I still never get deals like that. :-(
  • DavidBrickleyDavidBrickley Richmond, VAMember Posts: 334
    It was a once in a lifetime find...3 Hogwarts Express on the clearance aisle at Target at 75% off. I got 2 of them, and gave the third to a woman who was shopping with her son in the Lego aisle. The two I got became the 2-passenger car Express with some parted out pieces.
  • Silber334Silber334 Member Posts: 147
    I don't know if it's just my region. But we've seen the release of the 10220 VW combi early this fall, and now I'm watching them disappear as I type this. I've seen the prices soar on amazon.jp from 10,790 to 17,800, and how they've been disappearing from the local store shelves.
    Is this a short-lived product?

    And as for the Emerald Night and Fire Brigade, I've seen their prices hit an all-time low on , you guessed it, amazon.jp, suggesting that retailers are trying to get rid of them. But I think I'll wait a bit.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 3,986
    i have heard nothing about any shortages of 10220. as a direct/exclusive I would be shocked if it's shelf life was anywhere near this short. my local LEGO store has bundles of them, with no end in sight.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    I would be shocked if 10220 was discontinued. It seems to be a set that was well thought out and has only been on the shelves a few months. My guess is that there may be a shortage of these sets due to the holiday season and its obvious tip-of-the-hat to the baby boomer culture. I believe it will have good resale value once it is actually discontinued, and have set one aside for that specific purpose. I may buy one to build if there is a reasonable sale (>25%).

    If the Emerald Night is actually discounted by 25% by Lego on Black Friday, then it is very likely that it will indicate the end of this very nice set. I definitely plan to try and grab one for that price.

    I would like to see a good sale on one of the modular sets (Fire Brigade, Emporium, Pet Shop), and will grab one if that happens. If it's the Fire Bridage, then that set will likely be EOL'd too.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited November 2011
    If the Emerald Night is actually discounted by 25% by Lego on Black Friday, then it is very likely that it will indicate the end of this very nice set. I definitely plan to try and grab one for that price.
    Where did you heard about this set having a 25% off on Thanksgiving? I was waiting a bit longer to get this one, but at this price, plus the 10% off (at least) from the scratch offs, this set becomes really interesting.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 7,736
    ^ Hypothetically, "if there is a reasonable sale."
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    edited November 2011
    Coolpix, Here is the Brickset Link where I found it. Look at the list toward the bottom of the posts...
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/2062/usa-black-friday-sales#Item_25
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,360
    edited November 2011
    It will be an interesting winter with the possible LEGO sets due to 'check out' this year.
    I don't know if it's just my region. But we've seen the release of the 10220 VW combi early this fall, and now I'm watching them disappear as I type this. I've seen the prices soar on amazon.jp from 10,790 to 17,800, and how they've been disappearing from the local store shelves.
    Is this a short-lived product?

    And as for the Emerald Night and Fire Brigade, I've seen their prices hit an all-time low on , you guessed it, amazon.jp, suggesting that retailers are trying to get rid of them. But I think I'll wait a bit.
    I'm guessing it is due to the holidays more than the set being sold out already..
    Anything is possible, but this is unlikely IMO
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    I concur with most other people on here that the 10220 VW Van is just a really popular set right now and with the Holidays demand is exceeding the stock at this point. If you can't find it right now , you'll definitely see it after the holidays.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    Sold Out:

    Emerald Night Train

    Next in Line:

    Tantive IV
    Imperial Flagship
    Winter Toy Shop
    Cad Bane Speeder
    Republic Dropship
    Repair Truck
    Technic Race Truck
    Public Transport Station
    and even eventually...Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter

    Personally, I would hold out on the last one until after Christmas when they mark it down below $50. Even then it might not be a good deal in my opinion.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    Sold Out:

    Emerald Night Train
    Imperial Flagship
    Republic Dropship
    Tantive IV

    Next in Line:

    Winter Toy Shop
    Cad Bane Speeder
    Repair Truck
    Technic Race Truck
    Public Transport Station
    and even eventually...Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Does this mean sold out forever?

    Do items go to sold out, then come back, or does this usually mean gone for good?
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas Last year, the sets that sold out at this time of year: Green Grocer, Grand Carrousel, etc. were indeed gone for good.

    But... for the Republic Dropship, my local LEGO Store said they had TONS of them in the back. I don't think these were big sellers. Likewise, these still keep bringing out the Tantive IV. I don't think this was a popular set either.

    If you are REALLY looking to own Emerald Night or Imperial Flagship, find another source and grab one. Just my advice. I own 2 of each, and am considering grabbing more Emerald Nights.

    Thanks.
    -Dan
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,360
    Amazon has Emerald nights still for $89.99 USD and free shipping at last check
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    LEGO Brick and mortar stores will have Emerald Night for 25% off during the entire weekend. If you are planning to grab more of those, head to your local store and buy them for $74.99.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    I think if they state "sold out," they are sold out for good. I think "out of stock" means that they will likely produce more. That said, sometimes the sold out sets can come back temporarily if Lego's inventory shows additional sets at particular B&M stores. In that case, I have had sets shipped to me directly from the B&M stores at times.

    The Emerald Night has been out awhile (early 2009), and have had a good run. I think Lego is wanting to replace it with other train sets (e.g., Maersk set).

    That said and on a side note, what's the deal with Lego's extreme lack of decent tracks??? I am not fond of the adjustable tracks they currently sell. Heck, even their tracks for their duplo set are a much better than the tracks for their more expensive sets! Come'on Lego...please provide some decent tracks at reasonable prices...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Maybe not, they are back in stock now for full price.

    Perhaps they just sold out of brick Friday inventory?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,314
    I show EN sold out on-line at Lego (just checked). Where did you see it still available?
  • kylejohnson11kylejohnson11 Member Posts: 507
    I see the same as Farmer_John and it shows the sale price, not full price.
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