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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 13,893
    SumoLego said:
    We are all working on our bold 2017 predictions that are all invariably wrong...
    I predict Lego will do an architecture series Trump Tower, but in Lego's slow progress to get it to market Lepin will get their version out first. With no royalties going to the Donald, he'll nuke China and so starts Armageddon. At which point our Lego will be pretty much worthless.
    DoctorMcGannjosekalelJackad7catwranglerBrickarmorMrJ_NYNcodeScatterbugRedbullgivesuwind
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 Washington, USAMember Posts: 224
    ^But Lepin will be gone :) 
    monkeyhangerVorpalRyuDoctorMcGannJackad7
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 3,858
    CCC said:
    SumoLego said:
    We are all working on our bold 2017 predictions that are all invariably wrong...
    I predict Lego will do an architecture series Trump Tower, but in Lego's slow progress to get it to market Lepin will get their version out first. With no royalties going to the Donald, he'll nuke China and so starts Armageddon. At which point our Lego will be pretty much worthless.
    Or a new valuable currency for the few survivors ;-)
    VorpalRyuDoctorMcGanncatwrangler
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 6,378
    I think melted Lego would make for a fabulous coffin.  Form-fitting and would prevent any foreign materials from sullying my remains.

    Cubs Win, Trump Wins, Armageddon!
    SprinkleOtterblack_towrVorpalRyuBricklover18Pitfall69Jackad7catwranglerClutchPower
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,485
    IMO 2016 was a really strange year. I have a feeling we will be spending 2017 'paying for it'.
    VorpalRyuLegogramjosekalelMrJ_NYClutchPower
  • josekaleljosekalel Rio Grande Valley, TexasMember Posts: 494
    One thing is for sure, we'll all be hiding in our houses building all the unopened sets we have...
    Jackad7stluxRainstorm26
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 13,893
    I've built an unopened poly. I've never seen it done with a boxed set though!
    sid3windrDoctorMcGannJackad7
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 1,078
    edited December 2016
    Just been having a look through S@H retired sets and noticed that #75138 has retired after only 12 months.
    Being as though this was the only current set that enabled the addition of Snow Troopers at a reasonable price to add on to the lonesome 2 in AOH, does anybody think that the big set might  have a shorter shelf life than normal for 'cough' UCS sets? 
    To me they really are not doing anything to help this set, what with the retirement of the AT-AT before it came out and now this, it seems it's sort of been left out in the cold.
    catwranglerVorpalRyumadforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,485
    The AOH Really poor planning by LEGO. No At-At and now another somewhat large component to Hoth, the Spy droid, is now retired. My guess is that LEGO thinks this set is going to stop people from overpaying for what is essentially a collection of smaller sets-most of which will likely be redone once AOH is EOL.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 1,951
    bandit778 said:
    Just been having a look through S@H retired sets and noticed that #75138 has retired after only 12 months.
    Being as though this was the only current set that enabled the addition of Snow Troopers at a reasonable price to add on to the lonesome 2 in AOH, does anybody think that the big set might  have a shorter shelf life than normal for 'cough' UCS sets? 
    To me they really are not doing anything to help this set, what with the retirement of the AT-AT before it came out and now this, it seems it's sort of been left out in the cold.
    I hadn't been watching that set. I will have to check locally to see if any are still on the shelves. I should pick up at least one. I like to try to get OT stuff. 
  • HuaojozuHuaojozu PilsenMember Posts: 10
    Looks like a UCS MF re-release is coming (or at least TheBrickFan speculates)... 
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 725
    ^ Excellent...then I won't feel bad opening and building the one I have NIB.
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 144
    Ewok village #10236 has finally sold out on s@h UK. Thought it would go allot quicker than it did, like it did on s@h US.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 406
    Lots of additions to USA S@H's list of Retired Products. Many are shown on the first pages of search results, but others are hidden deeper: Ecto-1, Santa's Workshop, Constraction Grievous, White House, Big Ben, Lincoln Memorial, the Scooby Doo line, SW #75140 Resistance Troop Transport (that was quick), Droid Pod Escape, Galactic Empire battle pack, and lots lots more officially RETIRED. 
  • GremerGremer The Commonwealth of VirginiaMember Posts: 63
    ^Wow. Really glad I got the White House and Lincoln Memorial for Christmas. I just hope I can find an Escape Pod soon.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 6,378
    Anyone keeping tabs on volume changes in UCS MFs on eBay or Bricklink - in light of the UCS MF reissue rumours?
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 1,951
    How do you sort to see everything that is recently retired?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,485
    edited January 11
    pharmjod said:
    How do you sort to see everything that is recently retired?
    Go to S@H and search for retiring soon. But Im only seeing about 15 sets/items when I do that now. You can also search for retired products as well
    pharmjod
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,485
    edited January 11
    CMF 16 is now retired as well. Forgot to add to hit the 'newest' option at the top of search results to see the 'newest' sets retired (though that still does not stop some sets like Hogwarts castle and Taj Mahal from appearing at the top of the retired results).
    Minecraft crafting box is done as well.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 406
    I notice the retired ones don't even show up when you're just browsing sets by theme. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 13,893
    SumoLego said:
    Anyone keeping tabs on volume changes in UCS MFs on eBay or Bricklink - in light of the UCS MF reissue rumours?
    Haven't been looking, but I don't think the same rumour did much in previous years.
    FollowsClosely
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 132
    So how long until we see some price hikes from sets like the Pet Shop or the Ecto 1? I have an Ecto 1 stored away for my BL store that I am hoping follows the Delorian trend. As of yesterday the Delorian was around $100 for a $35 set. I'll take that turn around all day. Not to mention the Ecto 1 is the far better set of the two, the Delorian is really only average.

    I'm really hoping to get $120 for my Ecto 1, even if that means sitting on it for a year.

    As for the Pet Shop, I have one still sitting in the box but it's from my personal collection, not for sale. But if it jumped up to $250 I might think about it. But I know so many people hoarded them, plus I do really want the set, lol.
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 725
    ^I think Pet Shop has been around so long and stock-piled by the Brickpicker community that it is unlikely to skyrocket in value.
    FollowsCloselystluxBuriedinBrickspharmjodJackad7
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 799
    edited January 11
    ...

    I'm really hoping to get $120 for my Ecto 1, even if that means sitting on it for a year.

    ...
    The vast difference in the supply of Ecto 1 vs the supply of the Delorian can not be ignored. It will be a slow steady climb for Ecto 1, you will not see $120 for a long, long time. If every.
    preverestluxpharmjod
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,678
    ^Plus you've got the girls Ecto still active, likely thru 2017. Best chance to even see it nearing $100 on Ideas Ecto-1 is Xmas 2018.
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 132
    ...

    I'm really hoping to get $120 for my Ecto 1, even if that means sitting on it for a year.

    ...
    The vast difference in the supply of Ecto 1 vs the supply of the Delorian can not be ignored. It will be a slow steady climb for Ecto 1, you will not see $120 for a long, long time. If every.
    Why do you think the supply for the Ecto 1 is that much higher than the Delorian?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 13,893
    Probably the length of time it's been available. Although both were heavily discounted, Ecto-1 seems to have been around for ages.

    I hated the Delorian, sold mine second hand but got my money back. Maybe I should have kept it. That also stopped me buying it for resale.
    CircleK
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 132
    Honestly I don't think the new Ecto 1 will effect the demand for the original one, if anything I think it will increase demand. The new film came and went, and was nothing more than a black eye on the legacy of that franchise. I have noticed even the most avid supporters of the remake start to put it behind them and return to the original film and merchandise. 

    Now that the Ecto 1 is officially gone, but the Firehouse is still available, I do think it will increase demand for the original car. Sure it's going to take some time, perhaps a year or more. Sure some people will settle for the new car, but again things related to the new film have a very LOW demand. 

    You can argue that the build on the newer car is superior, which is possible. But outside of that, the look and feel of the original car is better in every other catagory. 

    I may be just doing some wishful thinking here, but I'm hopeful I'll get to that $120 price range. As others have said, the Delorian is really kind of a poor build. I have both, and while I like the Delorian, the Ecto 1 is a much better set. The Delorian "feels" like an ideas set, like it could and should be better. It doesn't feel like a "real" Lego set, minifigs aside. Ecto 1 on the other hand feels like an official Lego set, not a fan build.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,745
    I never read this thread. It'll take some catching up! lol.
    Whats the score with Wall-E? It was such a superb set, I would have thought pretty solid aftermarket piece. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 13,893
    The problem is really good doesn't necessarily translate to does well in the aftermarket.

    Really good sets = everyone thinks they will do well = lots of resellers buy in = lower prices than might have been expected for resellers

    Less good sets = people don't think they will do as well = less resellers = better prices (although smaller volume of sales) for resellers

    Crap set = people don't think they will do well = a few people will buy at clearance for resale and many get parted out = sporadic pricing on aftermarket with very low volume

    There is a fine balance between how much stuff is held for later resale and its rise in price.


    CaptainPirateManCupIsHalfEmptyfloridabrickprevereLobot
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty CanadaMember Posts: 534
    CCC said:
    The problem is really good doesn't necessarily translate to does well in the aftermarket.

    Really good sets = everyone thinks they will do well = lots of resellers buy in = lower prices than might have been expected for resellers

    Less good sets = people don't think they will do as well = less resellers = better prices (although smaller volume of sales) for resellers

    Crap set = people don't think they will do well = a few people will buy at clearance for resale and many get parted out = sporadic pricing on aftermarket with very low volume

    There is a fine balance between how much stuff is held for later resale and its rise in price.


    This with a multiplying factor of shelf life. Surprise early retirement v.s long haul never retires. 
    CCC
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 3,743 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 10,079
    SumoLego said:
    ^ I'll put it next to my 2016 UCS Snowspeeder.
    I do not understand? My new Snow Speeder is on the same shelf as my new Grand Carousel. 
    LegoboySumoLegoBumblepantsVorpalRyuJackad7khmellymelClutchPower
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 6,378
    Pitfall69 said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ I'll put it next to my 2016 UCS Snowspeeder.
    I do not understand? My new Snow Speeder is on the same shelf as my new Grand Carousel. 
    Lego, not Lepin.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 3,743 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 10,079

    CCC said:
    The problem is really good doesn't necessarily translate to does well in the aftermarket.

    Really good sets = everyone thinks they will do well = lots of resellers buy in = lower prices than might have been expected for resellers

    Less good sets = people don't think they will do as well = less resellers = better prices (although smaller volume of sales) for resellers

    Crap set = people don't think they will do well = a few people will buy at clearance for resale and many get parted out = sporadic pricing on aftermarket with very low volume

    There is a fine balance between how much stuff is held for later resale and its rise in price.


    I have to agree here; I found that most of the Harry Potter sets were sub-par, but Harry Potter was/is so popular, that it didn't matter how good or bad the sets were.
    pharmjodVorpalRyudougts
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 990
    ^ Ding ding ding. Completely agree. It's Harry Potter and because of its continued popularity, the sets continue to be highly desired. But in all honestly, outside of a select few, most of the sets aren't all that great. I came out of my dark ages as Harry Potter was coming to a close. Ended up getting a few of the sets I really wanted, but couldn't pull the trigger on the others because they aren't that good.
    Pitfall69VorpalRyucatwrangler
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,745
    ^ agreed. 

    Diagon Alley is a masterpiece though. That's a set that should be worth £500.
    Pitfall69
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 1,951
    I bought several more Trevi Fountain during the TRU sale before Thanksgiving. I expect that one will do reasonably well. I have dramatically scaled back my expectations for reselling profits though. Used to be 100%+ increases were typical and fast. Now I'm content with 30-50% profit if I'm lucky. Since this hobby just funds my addiction to the brick its ok. 
    Pitfall69Bumblepants
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 3,743 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 10,079
    richo said:
    ^ agreed. 

    Diagon Alley is a masterpiece though. That's a set that should be worth £500.
    It's a great set, but I believe Borgin and Burkes was in Knockturn Alley right? Is there much of a difference? 
  • LyichirLyichir United StatesMember Posts: 236
    Pitfall69 said:
    richo said:
    ^ agreed. 

    Diagon Alley is a masterpiece though. That's a set that should be worth £500.
    It's a great set, but I believe Borgin and Burkes was in Knockturn Alley right? Is there much of a difference? 
    The two are basically adjacent, and barring a dedicated Knockturn Alley set (unlikely given how rarely it's visited in the series), Borgin and Burkes was a better fit for the set than many actual Diagon Alley shops that featured fewer important or plot-defining scenes.

    Personally I think the most recent iteration of the Harry Potter theme (that is to say, the 2010 and 2011 sets) were a very good take on the license if not the most outstanding theme altogether. 4842 Hogwarts Castle in particular is outstanding—it is modular (able to be rearranged or expanded with 2011's 4867 Hogwarts), reasonably resembles the castle facade from the exterior, and packs in a great number of key locations, characters, and props from over the course of the series. And while the rest of the theme may not have been overwhelmingly great (save of course for the D2C Diagon Alley),  most of the sets were serviceable for what they were trying to depict and did manage to cover and update a lot of the franchise's most important characters in time for the franchise's last hurrah.

    It is a shame that we never got a Hogwarts Express set on par with the Emerald Knight, but then, it's just as much of a shame that we've never gotten ANY steam engine on par with the Emerald Knight in all the years since its release.
    Pitfall69
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 406
    Delorean's lifespan of availability at retail was 16 months. Ecto 1's was 28 months. That says a lot. Glad I don't have many and wish I had none. 
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,034
    edited January 12
    GBHQ may help the Ecto out some if it sticks around for awhile. Late comers who buy the firehouse will certainly want the car. 
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 7,779
    richo said:
    ^ agreed. 

    Diagon Alley is a masterpiece though. That's a set that should be worth £500.
    [@richo reveals over the upcoming weeks it just so happens he has half a dozen to sell]
    SumoLegoPitfall69SprinkleOtterBumblepantsricho
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 7,485
    juggles7 said:
    I notice the retired ones don't even show up when you're just browsing sets by theme. 
    They never have. Why ask for more calls to your CS about how someone cannot get a sell because it is no longer made?
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,745
    Legoboy said:
    richo said:
    ^ agreed. 

    Diagon Alley is a masterpiece though. That's a set that should be worth £500.
    [@richo reveals over the upcoming weeks it just so happens he has half a dozen to sell]
    lol. I have a single solitary sealed copy. Opening it would be tough.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,678
    I hate breaking the seal, whether in drinking or with LEGO sets.
    VorpalRyueggshenJackad7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 3,743 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 10,079
    edited January 12
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