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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 3,743 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 10,309
    That is crazy. I am glad I sold my opened non first edition several months ago. 
    SumoLegopharmjodYodaliciousFollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 8,123
    What is silly is to me someone selling it; referencing 500 USD, unless it is opened. I mean the new one is 799.99 USD after all (and I think you get better figures out of the first one but just my opinion). You would think that you could still get at least 600-700 for it.
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 Washington, USAMember Posts: 541
    ^I've seen one on Facebook Marketplace for $1000. Not quite as low, but certainly the lowest I've seen one (minus your link of course) since I came out of my dark ages. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,916
    CCC said:
    ...Many people collect things that are common and low valued...
    @CCC - I'm not sure how I missed the original post, but I'm always happy to see the debunking of truly uninformed suppositions and conclusions.

    And I get tired of belabouring that the AFOL / Collector community pales in comparison to the 'civilian' market that purchases the bulk of LEGO product.  (Not that we need examples, but an excellent one is that there is little discussion of Friends in the AFOL or Collector community, but somewhere around 30% of the total product sales is Friends.)

    Also... Beanie Babies, Porsche sells cars, Rolex sells watches, LEGO doesn't make a dime off of the secondary market.  And collectors often focus on rare items that are not intended to be rare - and don't become sought-after until many, many years later.
    AanchirpharmjodLyichirstluxdatsunrobbiemak0137catwrangler
  • caterham7caterham7 UkMember Posts: 269
    brclark82 said:
    Any thoughts on the Saturn V...it has been "temporarily sold out" for a few weeks now.  The word temporarily obviously gives the impression that it will eventually be back in stock but curious if this may be one of those short runs with just a few available when it does come back.  

    I also havent been paying much attention lately so feel free to update me if this has already been discussed. 

    Available on the shelf in Leicester Square at 1am today.
    SumoLegoOrmskirkBricks
  • M_BossM_Boss Houston, TexasMember Posts: 78
    https://newyork.craigslist.org/brk/tag/d/lego-star-warsmillennium/6301316480.html

    #10179 for sale in NYC for at least $500. Not mine, just posting for reference. Was posted to craigslist two days before release of #75192. Anybody seeing similar sales?
    https://houston.craigslist.org/for/d/rare-highly-collectible-lego/6235512042.html
    (not mine either)
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 Washington, USAMember Posts: 541
    So I'm getting way ahead of myself on this one, but just curious what thoughts may be on the potential future draw for Destiny's Bounty? I have any opportunity to pick one up for $90 which seems like a great deal for what it is. I love the set, but if i bought it, I'd be tempted to sit on it. I know it's not comparable to the older pirate ships, but think this price may be a once in a life time opportunity.
  • gmonkey76gmonkey76 ChicagoMember Posts: 828
    @Switchfoot55 I'd jump at the chance to pick one up at that price. My plan is to get one and modify it for the sky bound pirates so they have a proper ship to go with my other pirates.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 15,051
    ^^ Buy it.

    Is the opportunity only for one? If more, buy more at that price.
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,276
    I'd jump on the Bounty for $90. I do think we'll see it discounted in the future as well though. It's a $160 set selling at the Walmarts and Targets of the world. Just look at the past $120 and $140 sets that those stores get. Several $120 sets have been down to $40 during the last clearance. And the Ultimate Batmobile was discounted several times not long after release. I think it's likely we see the same with the Bounty. I wouldn't be surprised if in 2018, it gets a price drop to $120 at Walmart and then possibly discounted further during some clearance times. Those stores don't seem to move a lot of the higher priced sets. At least not in my area. I got 6 of the various $120 sets for $40 each during July/August and several $80 or $100 sets for $30. 
    gmonkey76
  • nhyonenhyone Member Posts: 138
    Does Lego need such deep discount to move? I'm suspicious.
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,276
    ^ In those stores, yes. Think about it this way...the general public doesn't go into Walmart or Target to buy a $160 set. They go in to buy a $20 set for a birthday party they're headed to. Just look at the recent history. The TLBM Batcave was marked down from $100 to $80 almost immediately after release. The larger police and fire stations are basically permanently 20% off or more. Even something as popular as the Millinium Falcon (the Force Awakens version) is $120 at those stores when it's retail
    price is $150. The Ultimate Batmobile saw a drop to $100 all over the US right after release and people bought it. Now it's back at $140 and it just sits on shelves. 

    It's not that LEGO as a whole needs such deep discounts to move; it's that the more expensive sets aren't what the typical Walmart or Target shopper if there to buy. That and many recent sets appear to be so overproduced (regardless of the price level) that those stores have had to put them on basically permanent discount. There's no way the larger Walmarts in my area are going to each sell the 50+ TLBM Joker balloon sets they have...even at 20-30% off. 
    dougts
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,225
    Yeah, I'd buy at least one Bounty at $90. That's what, a 44% discount? More when you factor tax. I'm not really buying as much for resale anymore unless I get ridiculous discounts, but on that one, I might buy several at $90. It is a good value at $160. At $90 it's a steal. I picked up an ultimate batmobile at walmart the other day for $45, so that sort of discount is always a possibility as well, but I wouldn't pass $90 in hopes of a better one for myself. 
    dougtsAanchir
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 237
    I think the Bounty is one of the best ships that Lego has made. I thought it was a great set at full price. $90 is a steal. 
    dougtsAanchirmonstblitzBuriedinBricks
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 538
    I bought the Bounty at full price (did get damaged box VIP points) but it looks like a beautiful ship in the store displays I've seen.  Can't wait to build it.  I'd pounce at $90.
    Aanchir
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,305
    According to the last six months' BrickLink sales, a new copy of #9446 Destiny's Bounty is currently worth around 75% more than its original sticker price from five years ago. That's not Star Wars levels of appreciation, but it's nothing to sneeze at for a theme that is outside many AFOL's radar.

    Seeing as the new Destiny's Bounty still has cloth sails (a big draw for Pirates fans) in addition to a much more impressive build, I'd say go for it. And if you see a similar discount as it gets closer to EOL, pick up a second copy so you have one to build and keep for your own collection!
    catwrangler
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,096
    Aanchir said:
    According to the last six months' BrickLink sales, a new copy of #9446 Destiny's Bounty is currently worth around 75% more than its original sticker price from five years ago. That's not Star Wars levels of appreciation, but it's nothing to sneeze at for a theme that is outside many AFOL's radar.

    Seeing as the new Destiny's Bounty still has cloth sails (a big draw for Pirates fans) in addition to a much more impressive build, I'd say go for it. And if you see a similar discount as it gets closer to EOL, pick up a second copy so you have one to build and keep for your own collection!
    if you haven't seen the new Destiny's Bounty in the flesh, you are missing out.  It is an amazingly detailed build and a true work of art.  it is simply gorgeous on display
    OrmskirkBricksCurvedRoadPlate
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 1,413
    Now that we are on the topic of Ninjago: #70751 Temple of Airjitzu has changed to "Retired Product" on the US S@H. Seems to have skipped the Retiring Soon tag.

    Still available on S@H EU, and from several large toy retailers, with no discounts.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,916
    One also has to remember that Wal-Mart gets the product at wholesale, so LEGO isn't losing anything on their margins.  (I'm sure Wal-Mart can live with 25% margins on 'deep discounted' sets to move the product.)
    Hanzo
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 400
    Kind of an odd time to retire the temple of airjitzu.  I would have thought they would wait until couple months after the release of the ninjago movie incase the movie brings in new fans.
    legomental
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,916
    ^ I'm sure they want to push the Destiny's Bounty and Ninjago City.  (And who knows what wave two will have for us...)
    madforLEGO
  • gunther.schnitzelgunther.schnitzel Member Posts: 92
    Got Destiny's Bounty for EUR ~112.50 from Amazon.co.uk a couple of weeks ago. It is EUR 99 in Smyths now with stock in most Irish stores.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 860
    edited September 16
    @Switchfoot55....explain the opportunity, if you can?  Is it a retail sale, someone dumping, store coupons, friend needs $90...guy selling them out of his trunk in  parking lot?
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 Washington, USAMember Posts: 541
    ^Just a local seller. I've never done a deal with him before, but he always sells new sought after stuff. The pictures show a new box, minor scuffs on one corner, sealed. 

    In torn as I'm not super into Ninjago, but duo like the look of the set. But the idea of potentially reselling some day is also intriguing. 
    ryjay
  • CharmiefcbCharmiefcb SydneyMember Posts: 45
    Does anyone feel the latest modulars will not be as valuable as the older ones when they retire? It just seems that everyone is going out and getting Palace Cinemas and a year or so ago before it retired the Pet Shop.
    It seems there are more of the latest modulars in collections to be sold at a later date than the older ones like the first 3.
    Resellers will get their money back and a bit more but does anyone see the latest modulars sort of losing their aura with so many now in the hands of resellers/investors than 5-10 years ago?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,793
    ^All good points madforLEGO. I'll add that while I've used past performances on similar sets/themes as an indicator for potential profit (modulars is a good example), that line of thinking no longer works for me. Rehash after rehash is just a killer. All of this makes the evaluation of what to buy for investing all the more difficult. 
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,280
    Small to medium sized licensed sets on discount are the way to go imo. Obviously you need judgement to pick right ones. Hulkbuster, antman, wall-e all doing nicely for me
    prevereOubirddougts
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,793
    I also find that some general "evergreens" tend to do well...like pirate ships and dinosaurs, regardless of what themes they appear in. 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO USMember Posts: 8,123
    edited September 18
    roxio said:
    Small to medium sized licensed sets on discount are the way to go imo. Obviously you need judgement to pick right ones. Hulkbuster, antman, wall-e all doing nicely for me
    I think the subject matter means more than just getting any small to medium licensed sets, even on discount, because typically to make money on smaller sets means you have to invest large on the number of set you get. Guess wrong and you are stuck with a ton of stuff no one wants.
    ryjaypumperx
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,793
    I saw a 10179 on Craigslist for $1,200. I talked him down to $950.
      I sold my last 10179 eight months back when the rumors first came out for $2,100. That's how you play this game, and an interesting market.
    Did the same thing with the winter toy shop. Bought for $60, sold for $250, right as the rumor was starting to become viable.
    FollowsClosely
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 482
    Could we see a drop in the secondary market of star wars UCS sets? I'm willing to be that at least son of the collectors are going to try and sell their less favorite sets to pull money together for the new Falcon and there will be less people trying to pick up the older sets instead probably saving for the falcon.
    FollowsClosely
  • stefxanstefxan AustriaMember Posts: 31
    I was offered a 10221 for 450 EUR yesterday. The sam 10221 had a price tag of 800 EUR in January. For my personal opinion I think there will be a drop on any UCS set in fear of a new version (for the ships). Yoda 7194 and so on should not be influenced.
    FollowsClosely
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 162
    HOLY CRAP!  Can anyone tell me why people are paying $130-150 for the #40139 Gingerbread house?  It was a promo item.  I know it was highly sought after and I'll admit, it looks really good.  $150 though?  Did it start at $40 or $60?  I can't remember

    I'm glad I saved some of these to sell
    floridabrickSeanTheCollectordougts
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 4,007
    ^It just went up a ton over the summer. Not sure what prompted it though.
    Balloonist
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 15,051
    PapaBear said:
    HOLY CRAP!  Can anyone tell me why people are paying $130-150 for the #40139 Gingerbread house?  It was a promo item.  I know it was highly sought after and I'll admit, it looks really good.  $150 though?  Did it start at $40 or $60?  I can't remember

    I'm glad I saved some of these to sell
    It started at about $25 / £20 when they were a promo. It has gone up massively over summer, I don't know if it people getting ready for Christmas / Winter Villages or something like that.
  • nhyonenhyone Member Posts: 138
    I sold my last 10179 eight months back when the rumors first came out for $2,100. That's how you play this game, and an interesting market.
    I bet that guy who bought the MF off you didn't see it that way. :-)

    He is now out $1+k that he could have used to buy the new MF plus a few more giant sets.
  • ScatterbugScatterbug WalesMember Posts: 77
    PapaBear said:
    HOLY CRAP!  Can anyone tell me why people are paying $130-150 for the #40139 Gingerbread house?  It was a promo item.  I know it was highly sought after and I'll admit, it looks really good.  $150 though?  Did it start at $40 or $60?  I can't remember

    I'm glad I saved some of these to sell
    The rise seems to be attributed to a Facebook post that went viral. The price is now falling as the bubble has burst. Christmas will see good demand for this great set but not at those values.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    I sold one for 139.99 (pounds) could not believe it!


    PapaBear
  • LuLegoLuLego UKMember Posts: 576
    The price of gingerbread house is crazy. On eBay, the going rate is £80+ and even used is £50. It doesn't surprise me that @littlepuppi sold it for so much. And this was a free set!

    As much as I love this set on my Christmas table, £50 goes a long way towards an expensive time of the year. I don't consider myself a reseller but I'm tempted to sell on. I'd be just as happy with a bricklinked model of it on display.

  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 788
    That's crazy!  Of COURSE I failed to get that one. I don't suppose the other set (the Christmas train) is shooting up in value?
  • ScatterbugScatterbug WalesMember Posts: 77
    LuLego said:
    The price of gingerbread house is crazy. On eBay, the going rate is £80+ and even used is £50. It doesn't surprise me that @littlepuppi sold it for so much. And this was a free set!

    As much as I love this set on my Christmas table, £50 goes a long way towards an expensive time of the year. I don't consider myself a reseller but I'm tempted to sell on. I'd be just as happy with a bricklinked model of it on display.

    You will not sell (on eBay UK) for that price. £60 maybe, which is still a good return considering it was 'free'.
  • AdzbadboyAdzbadboy London, UKMember Posts: 2,516
    I was wondering what happened to this thread, it had constant comments. I guess everyone was stalking the #75192 - Millennium Falcon thread instead...

    ...I was right given this discussion has rapidly continued since the release of the set.
    sid3windr
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 538
    I remember I was just getting into Lego as the Ginger Bread promotion was going on.  I really didn't have the money to spend to get the promotion at the time, and I remember thinking, "They probably give away promos like this all the time."  I couldn't have been more wrong.  Kicking myself for missing out on it.
  • MegtheCatMegtheCat Houston, TXMember Posts: 222
    ^I remember the Gingerbread House was the promo for Black Friday weekend, but the sets I wanted to buy were released on Tuesday, when the promo was supposed to be over. Apparently they had enough to extend the giveaways, because I was ecstatic when it was added to my cart at midnight when I ordered the Doctor Who Ideas set, et al. Now it sits on my mantle as a part of my growing Lego Christmas display every year. I like it even better than last year's snow globe.
    Legogram
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 162
    nhyone said:
    I sold my last 10179 eight months back when the rumors first came out for $2,100. That's how you play this game, and an interesting market.
    I bet that guy who bought the MF off you didn't see it that way. :-)

    He is now out $1+k that he could have used to buy the new MF plus a few more giant sets.
    I would say 10179 is still worth around $1,500 new.  It is going for over $2,000 on eBay.  The fact that Lego doesn't have any of 75192 in stock kept it sort of high for now.  Ppl rushed to sell theirs in a panic and that's why prices got to $1000.  I think it will even out around $1,500 when stock of 75192 comes in.  Of course, it will start climbing as soon as the new one gets discontinued.
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 162
    Helicarrier is out of stock on LEGO.com.  I have one, but don't think I would get another to resell.
    SumoLego
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