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UCS falcon rumours (that turned out to be true!)

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Comments

  • ARo2891ARo2891 MAMember Posts: 113



    ...and there's the disclaimer. :/



    Which I easily sidestep by being intentionally vague about what stuff costs. :) 

    I've found mentioning how much it's worth rather than how much it cost me keeps her at bay.
    MattDawson
  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 109

    I so hope this is true, 800 euro would be A LOT of money though for 1 set. I will want to buy it but having to choose between 1 falcon or the ghostbusters HQ+assembly square+another modular, that is not such an easy choice.

    It should effect the price of the "old" ucs MF but not that much probably,the old set is to rare and there will still be some demand for it though selling one would probably take a lot more time then now. Maybe it falls back to 3k-ish. 800-ish would be a smart price tag for lego and also place a hard floor on the price of the old ucs. Very excited for this,i hope it will be announced early may,having to wait more months would be unbearable now that the teasers are out.

  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 109
    Investing in lego has been death for a few years now,all the high prices you see on ebay for sets that have been released in the last 3-4 years like the mini modulars are artificial. There is a ton of suply and it takes ages to sell something. Now that lego is making reruns the prospects for increase in sets is very small. Maybe some sets will do well after being retired but the selling will be so slow that there will be a lot of stock left over when lego makes a rerun a few years later. Personally I don't mind this at all. The only way to make money now is to buy sets in retail when there is a big discount,and then selling them on markets or ebay for the normal price and hope some people will pay normal price after the discounts are gone again. Buying out stores before christmas like some people do here,it is just a joke and there is no money in it. You have to buy a ton of sets and then you can sell 10% of them for maybe 100% profit,only to be left over with the remaining 90% which you wont be able to sell for even a 30% discount lol.
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 540
    I've got a chunk of my tax return set aside if this rumor ever pans out to be true.
  • IstokgIstokg MichiganMember Posts: 1,942

    Pmh said:

    It should effect the price of the "old" ucs MF but not that much probably,the old set is to rare and there will still be some demand for it though selling one would probably take a lot more time then now. 



    I woud call it "pricey" (an understatement)... but not rare.  There were 55 sold on Bricklink in the last 6 months, with an additional 83 still unsold.  Not to mention those sold on Ebay or Amazon.  Plus you have to factor in all of those who are holding onto this set as a future investment.

    To me "rare"... means just a few available.  The set is expensive, but not rare... those two things are 'mutually exclusive' in this instance....
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRApharmjod
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 914

    Istokg said:



    Pmh said:


    It should effect the price of the "old" ucs MF but not that much probably,the old set is to rare and there will still be some demand for it though selling one would probably take a lot more time then now. 





    I woud call it "pricey" (an understatement)... but not rare.  There were 55 sold on Bricklink in the last 6 months, with an additional 83 still unsold.  Not to mention those sold on Ebay or Amazon.  Plus you have to factor in all of those who are holding onto this set as a future investment.

    To me "rare"... means just a few available.  The set is expensive, but not rare... those two things are 'mutually exclusive' in this instance....


    There were 5000 Mr. Gold minifigures made - are they not rare?
    floridabrickMAGNINOMINISUMBRA
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 924
    I think they are perceived to be rare because unless you have one sitting in your closet, you will probably never see one.
    CM4SMattDawsonBuriedinBricksSumoLegopharmjod
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,930
    Mr. Gold would also qualify as 'rare' in that there was not a direct way to acquire one.  

    You could have directly purchased a UCS MF from Lego.  There was not that opprotunity with Mr. Gold.  Or the Bat-Pod, as another example, or the gold C-3PO.
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRAgmonkey76VorpalRyu
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 687
    ^ And when you compare 'bang for your buck' on genuinely rare stuff ( like as listed above with the Lester minifig another example that comes to mind) - UCS Falcons actually represent EXCELLENT value!
    Legoboygmonkey76VorpalRyubandit778snowhitie
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,226
    I would call Mr. Gold limited and desirable. Not rare. But that's just me. The solid gold c3po, now that is rare. I tend to agree with @Istokg's assessment. Virtually nothing LEGO has produced in the last 20 years is actually all that rare. Just because people pay ridiculous prices for things doesn't make it "rare". Just over valued.
    VorpalRyunicoyagomezSumoLegoMynattdatsunrobbie
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,930
    ^  This is true - but treading into the one-of-a-kind realm I would argue is something beyond 'rare'.

    For instance - the White Boba Fett keychain minifigure probably qualfies as a 'rare' piece.  But isn't anywhere as desirable as similar production minifigures.

    And Lego tells me that a modular is 'hard to find' despite being immediately available...
    VorpalRyuMynatt
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,930
    edited April 22
    People paid hundreds of dollars for Tickle Me Elmo - and that toy is/was not remotely rare.
    Rainstorm26VorpalRyu
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 4,014
    Standard system sets get produced in a much higher volume than UCS or Creator Expert type sets though. So it can be considered rare in that sense.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,330
    It doesn't feel rare if there are more people selling them than buying them, if you can look on eBay or bricklink any day of the week and see multiple for sale. Overpriced yep, highly desirable sure, but not rare.

    Houses are expensive and (at least in the UK) there are plenty of people that would love to buy one but can't aford to but houses arent rare. Value and desirability didn't equate to rarity.

    Even misb its not rare, ironically there are probably plenty of other sets of a similar age that are much harder to find in misb condition but wouldn't cost anything like as much.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,796
    I would love to know what TLG is missing. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,930
    Do they have armpit underspray?
    LegoboyVorpalRyuPitfall69catwrangler
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,930
    One would think a multi-billion kroner company would employ a similar process for their genuine for-the-public products.  Rare and highly sought after products...


    gmonkey76Pitfall69catwrangler
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,226
    edited April 22
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,226

    Legoboy said:

    pharmjod said:



    I would call Mr. Gold limited and desirable. Not rare.

     Presumably these Mr Golds are on the super rare side, albeit not desirable? :)





    I'm sure @Pitfall69 cherishes his =)
    LegoboymadforLEGOSumoLegogmonkey76VorpalRyuClutchPowerPitfall69
  • BrewBrew New Mexico (It's an actual state in the US)Member Posts: 181
    Solid Gold Leader standing by...
    BumblepantsSumoLegoVorpalRyugmonkey76Pitfall69
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,930
    ^ Oh, now you've ruined the thread.

    Gold rangefinder, standing by...
    gmonkey76VorpalRyudavetheoxygenmanGalactusPitfall69
  • gmonkey76gmonkey76 ChicagoMember Posts: 837
    Gold Five standing by...
    VorpalRyuPitfall69
  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 109

    The real demand (the demand to buy and keep,not to buy with the intention to resell) for the ucs MF is extremely high,it is a set that almost every lego and starwars fan would want to have and would be willing to buy depending on the price point.

    The real demand for the gold figures is much lower. Many people will not care about having them myself included. Even if they where 5$ I would not buy them as a keeper. Everyone would buy a falcon for the keep for 5$.

    Compared to the extremely high demand for the ucs the supply is very low,and that is what makes it rare imo. But when the new falcon comes out (when not if,lets be optimistic here) a lot of things will change. Most people want the falcon because it is an absolutely awesome model and not because they want to collect every lego starwars ucs set that has ever been made. It then becomes a competition on price between the old and the new set,more then 90% of the demand for the old ucs will probably disappear when a new alternative becomes available.

    Still the misb old set will remain rare,there must be less then 1k out there I think and there will still be some demand. I can see at least 1 being sold every year no matter what the price is in relation to the new model,maybe even 10 but probably not more. 3k-ish is probably to optimistic if a new set does come out,maybe between 2k and 3k. Investors could still relatively easily buy out the supply and corner the market but recovering your investment will take such a long time that it wont be worth it.



  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 1,770
    If there is clearly a market rush of 'investors' on a new UCS Falcon, I can see TLG pulling a Death Star/Pet Shop with this one to avoid potential backlash from collectors & fans who would have missed out.
    SumoLegoYodaliciouspharmjodxiahna
  • monkey_roomonkey_roo Member Posts: 1,235
    Without seeing any new falcon it would be impossible to say. If it is a different model, better interior, more parts, new parts, I.e. A total redesign and upgrade then it will have little bearing on the value of the first falcon as they will be two entirely different things.

    if it is just a re-release then it could have an impact, but then again it might not. If it is the same then you could see demand and price for the original rising as the new one is just seen as a second wave, great for everyone who missed out to get one, but not an 'orignional' release and thus an original will always demand a higher collector price for some people.

    making a comparison with the recent Death Star re-release is hard as that was a like for like swap for an existing set. Any new falcon would be coming along years after the last was retired so I doubt the impact would be the same?

    Personally if it is a re-release I will pass as I am lucky enough to have an original, if it is a totally new model then I will want it to have both side by side on a display shelf.
    MaffyD
  • KingDaveKingDave UKMember Posts: 940

    VorpalRyu said:

    If there is clearly a market rush of 'investors' on a new UCS Falcon, I can see TLG pulling a Death Star/Pet Shop with this one to avoid potential backlash from collectors & fans who would have missed out.


    I would expect the new UCS Falcon to be in production for 4-5 years at least. If it keeps selling they will keep making it and there are new films coming out every year until 2020 and probably more after that (this is Disney we are talking about).
    LobotVorpalRyu
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 697

    KingDave said:

    I would expect the new UCS Falcon to be in production for 4-5 years at least. If it keeps selling they will keep making it and there are new films coming out every year until 2020 and probably more after that (this is Disney we are talking about).


    I totally agree.  If it contains Hoth minifigures, as rumoured, there's some potential 'future-proofing' until at least 2020, which will be the 40th anniversary for Episode V.  I've said it before but TLG don't have to sell many of them to make it worthwhile, they just need something that will be eye-catching and generate interest in the SW range.  How many new customers will be drawn towards a top-end UCS set, but settle for something more affordable when they head for the checkout...?  At £700+ it will be the ultimate flagship for LEGO!

    VorpalRyu
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,226
    edited April 23
    There is demand for "a" UCS falcon, there just happens to only be one release available. If LEGO releases a new one and IF it is actually an improvement over the previous, the original will tank. Maybe it will still hold at a couple thousand but if LEGO does it right and makes the new one look as good on the outside and gives it an interior forget it. The only market that will exist for it will really die hard fans that have to possess everything that also have more money than they clearly know what to do with. 
    BumblepantsVorpalRyubandit778
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 4,290
    I'd say it doesn't even have to be an improvement- it only has to be as good as the original or worth the RRP over the aftermarket cost of the original - as in "Yes it's smaller and not as good but £1000 cheaper than the original, I'll have the new one"
    pharmjodVorpalRyu
  • IstokgIstokg MichiganMember Posts: 1,942


    <snip>

    if it is just a re-release then it could have an impact, but then again it might not. If it is the same then you could see demand and price for the original rising as the new one is just seen as a second wave, great for everyone who missed out to get one, but not an 'orignional' release and thus an original will always demand a higher collector price for some people.

    <snip>


    When the Hobby Set 398 was released (one year only, 1978) it was much sought after by collectors back in 2000-2002.  It sold for around $400 in used condition and over $1000 in MISB.

    When it was re-released as part of the legends series in 2003, the original tanked...
    https://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=398-1&ColorID=0

    And even the re-release never got to prices that the original had...
    https://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=10021-1&ColorID=0
    pharmjodMAGNINOMINISUMBRAVorpalRyuthedingman5snowhitie
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 687
    Study the past if you wish to divine the future...
    i think we'll get an even better chance for comparison than the Constellation since we now have the new Snowspeeder and the impending Grand Carousel.
    pharmjod
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 4,014
    edited April 23
    The 2013 UCS X Wing knocked the original UCS version down quite a bit didn't it? 
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRAprevere
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,226
    It did, though the original still seeks for a pretty high price. One difference though is that the new one didn't really improve over the original one in the eyes of many. The snowspeeder looks way better than the original stickers not withstanding. I haven't heard much about the grand carousel but if LEGO can make a new one that looks as good without falling apart if you look at it wrong I suspect prices will tumble.
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRAbandit778BumblepantsSumoLego
  • nexandernexander Glasgow Member Posts: 720
    i think even at a high price the set will sell Lego, although not much of the actual set. They will get craploads of pr from doing for a start. Also something we noticed while displaying last weekend. Despite have big displays, awsome mocs and big set likes gbhq and usc imperial shuttle the biggest draw was the bloody death star that was shoved at back. Its just so iconic. A usc mf is has an almost mythical status. rereleasing it will draw people in to lego and they will then go and a cheaper set. The number of sets they sell will be tiny compared to amount of sales they will get off the back of it.
    Bumblepants
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 687

    pharmjod said:

    It did, though the original still seeks for a pretty high price. One difference though is that the new one didn't really improve over the original one in the eyes of many. The snowspeeder looks way better than the original stickers not withstanding. I haven't heard much about the grand carousel but if LEGO can make a new one that looks as good without falling apart if you look at it wrong I suspect prices will tumble.


    As someone who MUCH prefers the original X Wing and sold their Exploding Carousel LONG before the PRICE exploded... I can't agree strongly enough.
      Mind you, I'm still undecided on the Snowspeeder - the new one is still quite flawed and just doesn't seem to have the charm of the original.
      This is probably due to being a classic space kid who appreciates the amount of accuracy the original achieved with a majority of parts that were available to us 30+ years ago.
  • BobflipBobflip Member Posts: 371

    Personally if it is a re-release I will pass as I am lucky enough to have an original, if it is a totally new model then I will want it to have both side by side on a display shelf.


    That must be one ginormous shelf!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,796


    The 2013 UCS X Wing knocked the original UCS version down quite a bit didn't it? 


    Yes - but those stupid Bellville pots in dark gray still cost $20-ish each for those who try to Bricklink it. 
    bobabricks
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,829
    edited April 24






    prevere said:











    The 2013 UCS X Wing knocked the original UCS version down quite a bit didn't it? 








    Yes - but those stupid Bellville pots in dark gray still cost $20-ish each for those who try to Bricklink it. 






    Yeah, and I think now that the new one is retired as well, it's all balanced back.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,930
    edited April 24
    pharmjod said:
    ... I suspect prices will tumble.
    And when they tumble, I'll be there to catch one.
    VorpalRyudatsunrobbie
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 1,901
    edited April 24
    The Lepin MF has already cause 10179 prices to drop. All those that decried the high price of the original are only too happy to pay about $250.00 (a 90% savings) and stick it to all those evil re-sellers. 
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 4,014

    ecmo47 said:

    The Lepin MF has already cause 10179 prices to drop. All those that decried the high price of the original are only too happy to pay about $250.00 (a 90% savings) and stick it to all those evil re-sellers. 


    It seems quite a few people are scrambling to sell their copies before the rumors of a new one are confirmed as well which could also be contributing to the price drop.
    SumoLegoLegoboyGalactusstlux
  • IstokgIstokg MichiganMember Posts: 1,942
    edited April 24
    I was updating my new collectors guide Fake LEGO Chapter... and I remember the über pricey radar dish of 10179... which has been showing up with fake printing on real LEGO dishes....


    (Fake printing left)

    https://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?P=50990pb03&colorID=86

    It will be interesting to see if the new MF will have one of these....  or something different?
    SumoLegoMynattLegoboysnowhitie
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 7,930
    edited April 24
    Istokg said:
    It will be interesting to see if the new MF will have one of these....  or something different?

    I smell a sticker... 
    CovipharmjodBumblepantsMynattgmonkey76bobabrickscatwranglerSprinkleOtter
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,226
    Scratch n sniff LEGO stickers could be pretty fun actually =)
    SprinkleOtter
  • GallardoLUGallardoLU USAMember Posts: 600

    pharmjod said:

    Scratch n sniff LEGO stickers could be pretty fun actually =)



    Just don't give us scratch and sniff Hutts, or TaunTauns...
    exciter1UberbrickSprinkleOtter
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