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At the risk of being shot by a stud-launcher...

Habitant99Habitant99 FloridaMember Posts: 73
Full disclosure:  I'm about 60% of the way through construction on mine, so this really isn't about me, seriously...

A friend of mine got his 75192 UCS Falcon a few weeks ago when the backorders started filling.  His wife is pressuring him to hold off on opening it as she thinks it will sell for crazy money as we approach the holidays.  I told him I wasn't sure, it seemed like more were making their way into the wild, and that it might give him the chance of making a lot of money on it, or it might not.  Looking at eBay, they seem to be selling for around $1,200-$1,300 (sold auctions) which is about 1.5X the SRP.  Does anyone think it would ever hit a point where it's at double the SRP? 

Comments

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 15,067
    edited November 8
    Yes, but not in the short term. Some will probably sell (or appear to sell) for double retail in the near future, but I doubt the average secondary market price will go up to that.
  • Habitant99Habitant99 FloridaMember Posts: 73
    I think what his wife is counting is the insane parent who will buy a Furby for 5X the SRP stepping up to buy a Falcon.  I'm thinking that's a big stretch.  It's one thing to go a tad insane and spend $100 on a $20 toy so your kid is happy come Christmas morning, it's another thing entirely when  that $20 toy is more like an $800 toy...

    I'm arguing for him to keep it in his collection and just enjoy it, rather than hope to make a quick buck or $400, but am curious as to what people think it will top out at come December 18th.
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 910
    For somebody who makes $20K/year, buying #75105 at MSRP might be considered insane. Others can afford to fly a representative to London to stand in line and buy #75192 for them. With over 100 available on eBay there is no reason for anybody to spend much more than MSRP to get one, and LEGO has been restocking.

    All that aside, if I had one and my wife told me to list it on eBay for $2K until after the holidays, it would get listed. There are lots of other sets I can build between now and January.
    LuLegoCCCYodaliciouskiki180703
  • TokerToker CTMember Posts: 17
    The prices on holiday toys go up 5x because the base price isn't $800. I think the holiday market for a $800 toy is very limited and even then, it's most likely 99% adult collectors.

    I was lucky enough to pick up a MF at my local Lego store and I'm building it right now with my kids. That experience is worth more to me than the profit from selling it.
    tallblocktookiki180703
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 15,067


    All that aside, if I had one and my wife told me to list it on eBay for $2K until after the holidays, it would get listed. There are lots of other sets I can build between now and January.
    This is good advice. Put it on at $2K, it won't sell, he still has it after Xmas.
  • LuLegoLuLego UKMember Posts: 578
    Wives are always right. That’s what mine tells me.

    Interestingly, I was considering this same scenario this evening... I was looking at the LEGO catalogue, admiring the glossy page on the MF and I wondered how many parents would be seeking to buy this closer to Christmas but not actually realise the lack of supply. Not everyone knows about how special this set is and they might just assume they could walk into any Lego shop in the build up to Christmas and pick it up.

    There’s an interesting article this evening in BBC news about how much parents are prepared to spend on the ‘must have’ toys for Christmas. So some children will be lucky enough to have this ‘toy’ this Christmas!

    If it were mine, I’d consider putting it on eBay closer to Christmas... but then I’ll always do what my wife tells me otherwise she might not let me have my LEGO pocket money this month!

  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 540
    I think what his wife is counting is the insane parent who will buy a Furby for 5X the SRP stepping up to buy a Falcon.  I'm thinking that's a big stretch.  It's one thing to go a tad insane and spend $100 on a $20 toy so your kid is happy come Christmas morning, it's another thing entirely when  that $20 toy is more like an $800 toy...

    I'm arguing for him to keep it in his collection and just enjoy it, rather than hope to make a quick buck or $400, but am curious as to what people think it will top out at come December 18th.
    I agree.  There are lazy parents out there who will pay $200 for a $60 toy.  Saves them some grief and waiting in lines for 3+ hours.  But to may even retail for an $800 falcon?  Let alone 2* retail?  Sure there are parents out there who will buy these for their kids.  But how many?  No children I know are getting this for Christmas.  Unless they have parents like me who buy it for themselves and say it's for their kids...

    Also, there is no guarantee that Lego won't put plenty of these in stock in time for the holidays.  Didn't they get a lot of Disney Castles out there just in time for Christmas?  I know this set might be more difficult, but I think hanging onto it hoping to cash in for more than retail will leave your friend and your friend's wife disappointed.

    I still haven't opened mine, but it's only because I don't have anyplace to put it. 
  • GallardoLUGallardoLU USAMember Posts: 600
    Yes, given enough time it will reach 1600ish, and with the holidays fast approaching someone will likely get desperate to get one and spend high. After the holidays I expect it to drop as holiday demand vanishes. Beyond that, as long as Lego keeps making them 2x RRP is going to be a rare sell. 

    I am curious if the limit 1 per household is still in effect. meaning that your friend may not be able to purchase another direct from Lego immediately. (if the limit is lifted than obviously that is no longer a concern) something to check into if he decides selling is a viable option.
  • alaskaguyalaskaguy Member Posts: 157
    edited November 9
    For somebody who makes $20K/year, buying #75105 at MSRP might be considered insane.
    For someone with a household income of $20K/year, buying virtually ANY toys would be insane.
  • Habitant99Habitant99 FloridaMember Posts: 73
    Quick update - he listed on eBay in the US at $1,999 "or best offer" and within 12 hours got 3 offers in the $1,000-$1,100 range. 
    catwranglerMegtheCatLittleLorikiki180703
  • KingAlanIKingAlanI Rochester, NYMember Posts: 1,417
    Worth a try to see if you can get a premium for it if you're waiting to build it anyway.
    Like waiting for a sale if you're not going to be building soon anyway.
    LuLegokiki180703
  • TokerToker CTMember Posts: 17
    Don't forget to subtract the ridiculous eBay and PayPal fees.
  • FizyxFizyx ColoradoMember Posts: 8
    I considered selling mine if the price was in the $1300-1400 range, but my issue is that I do want a copy of this set for myself as well, and with the issues they've had with getting significant stock of it out (as well as their issues with some other recent sets *coughSaturn5cough*) I'm just not sure IF I'll be able to get another set... which is making selling that much more difficult.  That said, if their stocking issues continue into next summer, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see sets selling for 2x+ SRP
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,225
    You will have years, YEARS, to buy the ucs falcon. I 100% believe that.
    BumblepantsfloridabrickBuriedinBrickslegomentalKerre
  • KerreKerre In a bar, under the sea.Member Posts: 246
    edited November 15
    ^I agree, but some people will want the set for Christmas. 

    In the hypothetical case you managed to get hold of a #75192 but would not be able to build it until January/February next year for reasons not under your control, what would you do? 

    Asking for a friend.
  • oldtodd33oldtodd33 Denver 4800 miles to BillundMember Posts: 1,940
    Depending on the profit margin I would sell it and buy another later.
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